Saturday, January 17, 2009

What's Wrong With the Big Ten: Dead Weight


Single-handedly destroying once-proud programs, one loss to a MAC team at a time

To some, this section may seem a little harsh. After all, the gentlemen pictured above are in the early stages of their coaching careers at their respective schools, one took his team to a Rose Bowl, and the other took his team to 12-win season in 2006. Both of them seem like relatively nice guys, in the same way everyone seems like a "nice person" when you hardly know them beyond a shared conversation or two. In all honesty, one is arguably a cokefiend and the other is arguably a meathead, possibly a hellspawn. I have no problem criticizing either of these two.

We begin first with Ron Zook of Illinois, more popularly known as [NAME REDACTED] to Blogfrica. His first season can be forgiven; he took over a team with really no talent to speak of left over from the Ron Turner era, and lead them to a 2-9 season. His second season is when Illinois boosters and the athletic department should have gotten a little wary of exactly what was going on in the wonderful little world that must exist in Ron Zook's head. He named Juice Williams his starter shortly into the season. This starter completed 39.6% of his passes on the season, looking like a freshman in every single game but being bailed out by yet another hapless Michigan State team under John L. Smith. There did not appear to be much hope for the future as the coach clung desperately to the promising-but-still-very-raw scrambler with a howitzer arm. Illinois actually improved on its loss total under the new scheduling rules, losing 10 games out of 12 and signaling what was thought to be an early doom for the Ron Zook era. To be honest, calls for his job at this point would have been very Ohio State - ridiculous and way too damn early. Yeah, it sucks, but you can muddle through. I tend to subscribe to the "three years and you're out" school of thought; if a coach takes over a failing program and doesn't lead them to at least a .500 season by his third year - and this "time limit", if you will, is negotiable, depending on circumstances such as the overall talent level when he arrives, expectations, etc. - he should probably be let go.

It can be said Zook responded quite well; the next season the Illini won 9 games, including a surprising win over top-ranked Ohio State. Well, I say this with tongue in cheek, because if you followed that team over the season, you knew it didn't look like a number one team and was only there because literally every team ahead of them at the start of the season had lost at one point or another. Ohio State was not that good, but it was still a respectable, potentially-program-building win for Zook, who rode his star quarterback all season long. Illinois went to a Rose Bowl and found itself in well over its head, but considering Williams was only a sophomore, things were looking bright.

It was not until his fourth year that the Zooker aura fully set in. Given the loss of some senior leadership on D (and undoubtedly the greatest patriot this country has ever known), a step down was expected, partially offset by the gains the offense - especially the passing game - was expected to make. Really, Illinois delivered on offensive expectations in terms of an improved passing game, but the running game was surprisingly lackluster; surprising because the talent was there, and so, arguably, was the offensive line. The passing game did improve drastically, but key elements of what made the Illini competitive in the Big Ten again - the rushing game and the defense - were simply gone. Illinois lost a defensive tackle, two linebackers, and both safeties, and utterly fell apart. That's a little more than half the defense returning; it should have taken a step back, but it should not have collapsed as it did in 2008. Were I an Illini fan, I would be extremely wary of this guy in 2008; if the team does not improve drastically with the influx of young talent, it has to be time to let Zook go. Florida fans would probably be the first tell you that this was not a good hire; the man has turned in one good season off the backs of unbelievable amounts of talent given Illinois' recent history. A younger, more - uh - rational coach - and some defense, jeez - would be a Godsend to the Big Ten and Illinois.

Wisconsin. Hoo boy. I have to say that I liked Barry Alvarez. A lot. Something about him made him more likable than your average coach. No idea why. When he left for Wisconsin's AD job, I was fully confident the guy would only approve a genius of a successor, one who wouldn't change what Barry left behind but also build on it. When he chose Bret Bielema, I figured the Bielema would do a heckuva job (Brownie) so and so forth and what not. I really didn't think much of it until he went 12-1 in his first season - on, admittedly, a schedule featuring various schools for the Blind and Infirm plus Michigan as the only vaguely good team - and Bielema looked like the Wisconsin Cheese Warrior God-King. I'll admit, this was my Scout/Rivals period, and I bought into the hype.

Then 2007 happened, and then 2008 happened. In both years, Wisconsin was expected to at least compete for the Big Ten title, and possibly find itself in a nice little BCS spot - probably the Rose Bowl - if it does just that. 2008 was a down year for Michigan, and 2007 was down for both Michigan and Penn State. This should not have been hard. In 2007, after a 5-0 start, Bielema met with his brother-in-failures Ron Zook, and lost. Wisconsin then lost four of the next eight, including a 31-point curbstomping at the hands of Penn State. Anthony Morelli was the starting QB for Penn State. ANTHONY "2-INTS A GAME" MORELLI. This is not that hard, Bielema.

I, and perhaps many Wisconsin fans, forgave Bielema for 2007. He's not perfect; while the conference may be down, this is a "young team" and all that. But 2008 was just bad. You goons lost to Michigan. Ten dickless paraplegics with an emu playing quarterback could have beaten Michigan this year. Actually, they did: Notre Dame beat Michigan 35-17; though to be blunt, Michigan would probably have won that game had the return team not been dipping their hands in butter and bacon grease on the sidelines. The heartbreaker to Ohio State is forgivable - by the end of the season it was obvious Ohio State was better than its 35-3 shitkicking at the hands of USC, and that it could, in fact, hang with 'elite programs'. A 20-17 loss to that team is entirely forgivable.

But, 48-7 to Penn State? At home, night game? That's fail with a capital "FUCKING HELL YOU INGRATE". Purdue held Penn State to 20 points, Ohio State held them to 13. Wisconsin's talent on defense is not that far removed from either of those two schools. Penn State, as I said before, during, and after the season, was not that good. Upon being smacked in the mouth, as pointed out in the post prior to this one, Penn State Big Tens itself into an oblivion of off tackle runs for three yards and wobbly underthrown desperation bombs. Wisconsin supplied all the butt Penn State wanted it to in that game, and it didn't have to be that way. This is Bielema at his worst; losing games Wisconsin, on talent alone, has every reason to be quite competitive in, and possibly win. Barry Alvarez would have won that game, I say this with no proof whatsoever but goddamn it, it violates laws of nature to lose that big at home if you aren't Just Northwestern, or Indiana. That's a loss the dregs of the conference look at and say, "damn, they just got their shit pushed up". Is it all Bielema's fault? It's never "all" anyone's fault (except when talking about Jim Bollman and the Ohio State "offense"); there are a number of factors including Wisconsin's terrible luck of the draw at quarterback, namely: they all suck some serious dong. Allan Evridge was unspeakably awful against almost everyone, and Dustin Sherer, while respectable until has late collapse in the Champs Sports Bowl, didn't really add anything to the offense.

I am not arguing that the aforementioned goons be fired because they aren't winning enough. If I were Barry Alvarez and whatever old white dude Illinois calls its AD, they'd be out the door based on a lack of results and the fact that they are not bringing anything new to the program, anything for recruits or the fanbases to get excited about. I call them dead weight because that's what they are; you don't have to get rid of dead weight. You can let it slow you down, and eventually drag you down. But you don't have to do anything about it if it violates your principles as an academic institution or whatever lamebrained excuse apologists trot out when it comes torch-and-pitchfork time.

The third and final section of this prolonged, needless rant deals with the cratered expectations of various teams - and of course, their fanbases - around the conferece.


Wednesday, January 14, 2009

What's Wrong With The Big Ten: The Bitch Mentality


You won't be needing these kidneys anymore.

The Bitch Mentality, you ask? If you aren't a college football blogosphere illiterate you read EDSBS, you should have a general idea of what I'm talking about. I'm not freely ripping from the inimitable Orson, I have my reasons. The Bitch Mentality, the state of bitchness personified by Tommy Bowden's tenure at Clemson, sorely affects the Big Ten's upper tier . In my estimate, the bitch mentality refers to Bowden's inability to utilize his talent being a genuine bitch and crawling into a hole when the going got tough.

This may seem a little generic at first; most coaches will tell you that being down fourteen or more is not the time to panic, it's the time to make sure your "execution" is perfect on both sides of the ball, that you're "winning your battles", so on and so forth. You'd get coach-speak, something Big Ten coaches seem to have down to a science. Across the board, Paterno, Tressel, Ferentz, and Dantonio all suffer from a similar problem. They're guys who project a quiet, contemplative, conservative persona in public and, for the most part, on the sidelines, while likely being fiery, angry leaders within the walls of the locker room. This is all well and good, for the most part, but I can't help but get the image that their players are not buying into the fiery exterior exhibited by the ol' softies once the camera is off. They think it's an act, to be blunt. This may seem like pure conjecture, but when these teams play games against teams with a pulse OOC, I think it shines through.

It is often observed that a team's demeanor reflects that of their head coach. The aforementioned coaches pride themselves on running "business trips" during big away games and bowl games. They wind their teams tight, telling them not to make any mistakes on and off the field. More often than not, it spills onto the field with negative effects - personal fouls, turnovers, etc. The apogee of Tressel's "business trip" mentality came one year after he ran a relatively loose ship in the desert in '06. After that debacle, the adjustment was understandable. He fired them up with a highlight tape of Mark May doing what Mark May does, and they came out tightly wound and angry, so angry they committed multiple game and drive-killing penalties, including personal fouls. This must be frustrating for Tressel, I'm sure, because it didn't seem like there was a right way to run things. Texas, USC, and LSU were all loose and carefree prior to their big games and bowl games against OSU, the Buckeyes and the Gators were the tightly wound ones. Urban Meyer channeled that anger into a largely penalty-free ferocious effort in which Buckeye dreams of glory died and hope ultimately failed. Jim Tressel could not. This makes him no less of a coach; 115 other teams probably would have lost to that LSU team, especially at the level of health it had reached prior to the bowl game.

Jim Tressel's struggles in the postseason were largely laid at his feet and his feet alone; while the Big Ten struggled overall in postseason play, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan all could point to victories over reasonably good SEC teams. As usual, the truth lay somewhere in the middle of "It's all Ohio State's fault" and "the Big 10 is irredeemably bad and will be so forever and ever anon". The reality was, the Big Ten's stubborn defiance of this newfangled "21st century" and its commie faggot football was killing it from within.

Ohio State under John Cooper, for all its failures, rolled up into joints like gangbusters more often than not (and probably rolled plain old joints with gleeful aplomb, too). While conservative at heart, John Cooper fielded arguably some of the best offenses in the history of Ohio State football, with talent unheard of in the Bruce years: George, Boston, Glenn, Hoying, Pace. Cooper was a recruitin' demon, recruitin' demons who ran an offense that was genuinely difficult to stop more often than not during the mid-to-late 90's. With the hiring of Jim Tressel, Ohio State knew what it was getting; in the Big Ten, Tressel's formula for success sounded like a winner: ball control, little-to-no-mistakes, play defense, and punt. With the possible exception of 2006, this is Jim Tressel football. If the defense can hold the opponent under 17 points - not a particularly tall task given the state of offenses in the Big Ten - "Tresselball" usually gets the job done. The problem is that against solid opponents, this has proven to be stupid, stupid gameplanning. I say this with no coaching experience whatsoever, but the results speak for themselves. As much as it may make me seem like the average Scout board denizen, the offense needs to put points on the board, many of them, in any way possible. Offenses powered by Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow, even Chris "Spotless Jersey" Leak are difficult to hold under 24 points with any consistency. Playing it tight - running the ball twice before a desperate, hopeless lob to a streaking WR, lining the corners up 10 yards off the LOS - simply doesn't work against teams who have been preparing for you for a month.

Iowa, not exactly a talent haven, has its issues with the Bitch Mentality. This past year, it had good reason; it had Shonn Greene, a force of nature, in the backfield. It had no need of a "passing game". But as we saw in 2007 and 2006, when Greene was either benched, ineligible, or wandering the Tibetan wilderness, searching for the meaning of life and the secret to pwning any and every foe you'll ever face, Drew Tate and Jake Christiansen lobbing up desperation bombs to Iowa's shockingly fast white dude (they always have one, ONE I TELL YOU) does not work with any consistency either. In case you were sleeping through the early part of this decade, Iowa has always been tagged as an up-and-coming team, and more often than not, when it plays good competition, it plays relatively well, but is ultimately done in by the inadequacies of its offense. Its defense is traditionally stellar; and it should be with guys named Humpal, Klinkenborg, and Angerer routinely suiting up in the admittedly badass black and gold. But outside of its miracle, come-from-behind, pulled-straight-out-of-the-ass victory against LSU in the Capital One bowl a few years back, the Hawkeyes have precisely one "elite" win in the last six years: a 33-7 dick-kicking of Ohio State in 2004. The Bitch Mentality is strong with this one, but when it works, it's shaming Ohio State in one specific category: the Hawks have three wins over SEC teams in bowl games in the 2000's alone. That being said, Iowa on its present course is due for bowl game shitkickings, many of them, if it can get over the hump, beat Ohio State, Penn State, and make the BCS using its offensive system. I don't think it will, and thus will have to settle for beating meh SEC squads (again, nothing I can criticize as an Ohio State fan) for the time being.

Penn State actually deserves a lot of credit for breaking away, for the most part, from tired old Woody-and-Bo-and-probably-Joe-too mentalities. In debuting its magooly (second definition)-named "Spread HD" offense, the Nittanies actually seemed to be attempting to bring the Big Ten, kicking and screaming of course, into the 21st century well before RichRod got the chance to. Instead, in pressure-packed situations, the call from the zombie booth seemed to override the need for a diverse, creative offense, and Penn State folded up and reverted to the good, Christian 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust mentality. See the Ohio State game for future reference. If Penn State placed a premium on moving the ball through the air, and if Darryl Clark was a little more accurate, the Nittanies could have had the same success through the air that Colt McCoy and Texas had with arguably less talented receivers than PSU. Nonetheless, the game ended 13-6 and offensive football in the Big Ten was set back another forty years. Another game like that and Paterno will be debuting the dazzling new "Swinging Gate" formation come September. It was ugly. In what could have been a showcase for Big Ten talent and innovation on Saturday Night on ABC, in front of Musberger and Herbie, both teams laid an offensive egg and it ended 13-6. The final touchdown was, in true Woody-and-Bo fashion, a QB sneak. It was also by a back-up who most assumed would eventually transfer, making the game even less compelling than it had been. Against USC, Penn State maintained a rather efficient blend of Paternoball and the Spread HD, but again, in clutch moments, seemed to revert to bitch status, doing the Big Ten proud in that regard. Penn State needs badly to pick and offensive gameplan - ideally the one that has the most success, the Spread SOMETHIN' OR OTHER I DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU DIRTY SPANIARDS, and stick with it, through good and bad times. In the second half against USC, I'm not entirely convinced Penn State's relative success was entirely due to USC letting up on the pedal, given that USC almost never lets up on the pedal once it's up by 20 or more.

Michigan dealt a potentially fatal blow to the perception of the Big Ten as a collection of old hat programs bitterly clinging to 60's mentalities by hiring the spread-option guru Rich Rodriguez. While 3-9 is not how he or anyone else (outside of Michigan's rivals) wanted the first season to go, an unmistakable seed for success was planted. In my mind and the minds of these furries, at least. It will not be easy taking Michigan to the heights I still feel it is capable of achieving after the 2007 nadir of the Lloyd Carr era. If Woody Hayes was the God of the Big Ten's backward ways, Bo was the Holy Ghost and Lloyd was the Son. Great guy, with an excellent taste in literature and whatnot, and for the most part a good coach, but not someone who was moving the program forward. Sounds horribly cynical, I'm sure, but it's true. You saw Michigan's offensive line, it's utter lack of safeties, it's terribly thin situation at quarterback, and its utter inability to make up for the talent deficit on the field - due to transfers, early departures and a truly shocking amount of guys who simply quit football. Lloyd Carr was an old man, tired, and beaten down from years of providing consistent excellency on the field. Unlike his relatively young counterparts at Ohio State and Iowa, he had reasons for his staunch football conservatism. Michigan has done all it can to allay its bitch mentality. Now we must merely wait and see.

Next, I discuss the conference's dead weight; coaches who probably aren't taking their teams anywhere of importance.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

What's wrong with the Big Ten, a preface

Even the most ardent of Big Ten homers are now (probably) willing to admit the conference is now on a significant downward trend. There are no more denials here; Ohio State is no longer the only one publicly shaming the conference, though we certainly did our damnedest in the last two title games. The Big Ten can no longer lord victories over SEC teams Tennessee, Arkansas, and yes, even Florida so easily over anyone, really. Not only are those games officially old hat according to the media and Scout and Rivals types - having occurred prior to the 2008 season, after all - they were close affairs that were ultimately decided by turnovers one way or the other. There was no dominance to be had, and even these victories came over teams that were 2nd or 3rd best in their conference, in relative down years for two of the programs, Tennessee and Florida. Regardless of how you approach past "big game" postseason victories, the Big Ten did not fare well - at all - in the 2008 postseason. For seemingly the third straight year, conference tin cans like Northwestern and Michigan State hung tough against teams that supposedly outmatched them athletically and schematically, only to lose late in their typical fashion. In 2007, Michigan State was in the game four quarters longer than it should have been against Boston College, and relatively evenly-matched Wisconsin and Tennessee teams traded blows until a late Volunteer pick sealed the game. In 2006, Wisconsin and Penn State pulled out squeakers against Arkansas and Tennessee respectively, before Ohio State shat the bed early and often against Florida.

Now it has come to this; a 1-6 mark in postseason play, highlighted by an Iowa rout of a truly feckless South Carolina team, and lowlighted by another Rose Bowl blowout and Ohio State getting its heart ripped out and stomped on repeatedly by the Longhorns of Texas. It was tough to watch: Wisconsin played Florida State close until an apocalyptic flurry of turnovers turned a relatively close affair into 42-13 Seminole romp. I do not need to tell you that Florida State does not have Peter Warrick and Chris "Treebeard" Weinke tossing the ball around anymore. They are bad. And their quarterback has the worst surname of any quarterback outside of "Jimmy Interception" and "Nathan Fumbledsnap": Christian Ponder. Penn State was down by three touchdowns in the blink of an eye to a USC team that is very good, but not that good. Northwestern repped itself fairly well before losing to a thoroughly slightly-above-average Missouri team. I slept through Iowa's win over South Carolina, not knowing it would be the Big Ten's only glimpse at fleeting postseason glory. Michigan State gave Georgia as much guff as it possibly could, but as I called in Dr. Saturday's liveblog, would not win if it gave up a touchdown to Georgia. It did. Three of them.

Actually, it wasn't just tough to watch. It was brutal at times. Big Ten teams, almost across the board, responded to adversity by going into a shell at which Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler would have gawked. It was truly a sight to see in its uniformity. Wisconsin had a reasonably good shell to go into - it averaged nine yards a pop on the ground against Florida State's rather good run defense. But it doesn't mean anything if every nine yard gain is punctuated by a fumble or the next nine yard gain alternates with a wobbly, underthrown pick. Big ten quarterbacks, Brian Hoyer and Dustin Sherer chief among them, throw wobbly, underthrown picks that cause ACC quarterbacks to cover their eyes and throw themselves on the ground, prostrate and wailing with agony (from here on out this condition will be known as 16 seconds left in the Fiesta Bowl).

What the hell is wrong with the Big Ten? Why can't it get away from mentalities that have been dead and gone schematically for nearly forty years? Is the bitch mentality as ubiquitous in the conference as I will allege in the next piece? The simple answer is the obvious one: I don't know. Whatever the Big Ten lacks, it is not one of these things: speed, athleticism, athletes, or whatever the latest media meme is. If you're a division one football program, you have athletes and speed to burn. Some teams just have a ridiculous amount of it, namely Florida. The widening gap between Big Ten teams and teams from the SEC, Big XII, whatever, cannot merely be accredited to recruiting stars and a lack thereof. Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin are all NFL factories. Even bad coaches at some of those schools cannot stop, or even begin to slow down, the flow of stellar athletes from Big Ten schools into the league. Ohio State stands a good chance of getting three guys drafted in the first round. Talent is not the issue, at least with the conference's typical top four. In my intense, deep and prolonged study of the current state of the Big Ten, I have identified three different problems affecting the eleven teams that make up the poorly-monikered conference: The Bitch Mentality, Dead Weight, and Cratered Expectations that may or may not have been there in the first place.

In the first section, I will discuss the Bitch Mentality, a problem plaguing the conferences' States: Michigan, Penn and Ohio. Iowa, more often than not, also suffers from a bitch mentality. We shall see as much when Iowa quarterback and former Gambino crime family police informant Ricky Stanzi can no longer simply hand off to Shonn Greene and watch him personally defile a defense. UM also used to suffer from an intense case of the bitch mentality, and for the sake of convenience, will be discussed at length in this section.

The second section will deal with Dead Weight; coaches who found early success who now cling bitterly to it in the face of losing to Western Michigan and edging out Cal Poly. As you may have guessed, Wisconsin and Illinois fall into this category.

The third and final section will deal with Cratered Expectations; something that in truth affects every Big Ten team to some extent, as fanbases are not instantly out for blood following every loss like Ohio State and its SEC kindred. It is not necessarily a problem; some fanbases are simply more civilized than the ravenous, bloodthirsty Ohio State fanbase, and probably already have a good head coach getting the most he can out of the schools feeble program. Others don't care that much about "sports", preferring to unlock all the achievements in Fable II rather than find a good football coach who does not look like a walrus. Others still have hired an "OO-RAH GO TEAM I DO COCAINE" Red Bull goomba under promises of Rose Bowls and "Minnesota footbaw". Pitiably, the remaining team has never been good at football and is having its once-proud roundball program crushed under the pudgy thumbs of a text-happy basketball coach. As you have probably noticed Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, and Indiana are the primary culprits in the final category.

I don't read all that much, spending my sleepless nights studying calculus and praying to various heathen gods while sacrificing small animals that I'll pass the damn class, but when I do, it's usually something history or politics-related. Thus, I've had my fill of seeing (and usually not reading) books on the rack that read "GLARING, POTENTIALLY OFFENSIVE WORD(S) IN ALLCAPS AND RED LETTERING (usually something along the lines of "liberals, degenerates, commies, bible-thumpers, terrists [sic], Talibandits, the Welsh, Ohio State fans"): What it/they is/are doing to America/the Environment/Manbearpig and what we/you/I/Cthulhu can do about it". This is not intended to be a blog version of those books. I cannot offer anything beyond general remedies for the ailments each program is suffering from, and believe me, each program has ailments in spades. This is a general overview, not a team-by-team diagnosis.

First part should be up by mid-week.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

I wasn't aware Texas recruited from Outworld


That has to be some sort of recruiting violation. When Mack Brown pulled in the "26-year old" (immortal) Outworld Sorcerer and Necromancer Quan Chi in 2001 as a WR, NAMBLA recruiting services somehow missed it as quite possibly the steal of the decade. You see, Quan "Cosby" has no use for your "route-running" or your "zone defense", aspects of a merely mortal existence, instead utilizing his teleportation ability like so:




Anderson Russell's bicycle kicks do not faze the Quan

As you saw during last night's game, Quan teleported to the perfect spot, equidistant between Anderson Russell and Marcus Freeman, tossed a random giant fucking screaming green skull Anderson's way, and sped into the end zone before you can say "Mortal Kombat 4 fucking sucked and so did its sequels". That shit's not fair. That has to be like, a penalty or something. The refs were handing those out like candy yesterday, but up and disappeared right then. I guess the GFSGS got to them as well. I propose a new NCAA regulation: all athletes must be recruited from Earthrealm.

Also, there is no truth to the rumor that, in order for Quan to "sign" with the Longhorns (in blood, of course), Mack Brown traded Will Muschamp's soul, cursing his body to remain in Austin for eternity. I think.

(Ed note: I will not be typing out a serious response to the game anytime soon. Probably. For me, the grief is still too near.)

Monday, January 5, 2009

Fiesta!




Come all you rambling boys of pleasure
O-linemen of easy leisure
We must kick 'Horn ass and hope we'll see
Arizona once again

Some housekeeping: I may be moving into new digs in the near future. Whenever it happens, I'll drop the link here so all five of you can follow me.


Saturday, January 3, 2009

Also, this


Alabama lost by more points to the Utes than a dickless Michigan team (is there any other kind?) did way back in September. Now all we need is Oklahoma to shake off its bowl faceplants and I can deal with not breaking the losing streak for another year.

And no, Ohio State would not have beaten that Bama team. Still. FRODO! FROOOOOOOOOODO- er, BRIAN! BRIIIIIIIIIAANNN!

Friday, January 2, 2009

Statistical Analysis, Part 4: Ohio State Offense and the Prediction

The fourth and final part of the statistical analysis of each unit in the Texas-Ohio State Fiesta Bowl. Part one dealt with the Buckeye defense, part two dealt with the Texas offense, and part three covered the Longhorn defense. Finally, we deal with the much-maligned (and justifiably so) Buckeye offense.
So many pies, so little time.

This won't be an easy column to write. Throughout the majority of its history, Ohio State has never been a versatile offensive team. If it can't run the ball, it usually cannot win. I'm not sure why we're so shockingly consistent in having a stellar running game with a meh, but not terrible passing game. With the exception of a few years under Walt Harris' explosive, talent-laden offenses in the 90's, this has been the case. It hasn't always been just three yards and a cloud of dust, but when the going got tough, that's what it would go back to more often than not. Brian Cook, dirty hippie and MGoBlogger extraordinare, quantified Michigan's conservative offensive schemes as "throwing rock", because rock always wins and paper and scissors are for commie faggots. Not his exact language, but you get the idea. It began with Bo for Michigan, and it began with Woody for the good guys. It hasn't ended yet, and won't change under Jim Tressel, barring a cataclysmic offensive coordinator hire and the ceding of playcalling duties to said offensive coordinator.

It wasn't considered hyperbole in the preseason magazine to label this the most talented team Jim Tressel has coached, and all the accolades were not reserved for future first rounders James Laurinaitis and Malcolm Jenkins. The offense was seen as a complete package that wouldn't put its defense in bad positions and generally get the job done "managing the game", as the cliche so often runs. It was expected to do a very good job of what Jim Tressel asks his offenses to do, and in the end, it kindasorta did, but in the ugliest fashion it could manage (pun not intended). What was surprising was the frequency with which the offense utterly failed; there is That One Game Out West, the Penn State slugfest, and even the Purdue game. Purdue gave up 41 points to Michigan people. Michigan. The offense alternated between mediocre and bad, which is mostly fine for Tressel, because mediocre has described every offense not led by Troy Smith under his direction.

Time for the wonktastic Google Docs chart. Apologies. Again, I'm discounting the Youngstown game, for all the obvious reasons.



So, yeah, this shouldn't surprise any of you. Ohio State's passing game is anemic, with flashes of competence. In fact, the only times it passed for more yards than the opposing defenses typically allowed, it lost. Thankfully, only one of those games can be attributed to a team letting up off the pedal: USC was up 21-3 at halftime and knew it merely needed to breathe to win in the second half. However, this is not a particularly inspiring set of statistics. There are some things to consider: in blowouts like NW and MSU, and in relatively one-sided affairs like Minnesota and Illinois, Tressel abandons the pass once he gets up ten or more. The passing statistics are softened by Tressel's innate cro-magness, the id within him that believes anything beyond a 10-point vic is achieved only by running up the score. When Ohio State needed a passing game, against Penn State, it had a good deal of success. Of course, Mark Sanchez showed that's not a particularly tall task just last night, but it isn't entirely hopeless for Ohio State. I think that when needed, Jim Tressel can come up with a reasonable facsimile of a passing game. I think he has learned at least a little bit from the Florida debacle in that respect; Ohio State moved the ball through the air fairly well against USC, Penn State, and even last year in the title game against LSU. Of course, it could be argued with two of those three that most of those yards came with Ohio State passing (or attempting to pass) its way out of a deficit. Regardless, I think that if forced to, Ohio State can move the ball through the air against Texas; it did reasonably well against a far better pass D in Penn State.

The problem is the running game. Texas' defense is downright nasty against the run. It's better than Penn State, which does not bode well for the Ohio State running attack. But as you can see, Ohio State went on a tear on the ground in its last three games. One game was against a bad rush D in Illinois, a mediocre one in Texas, and a rather good (top 40) rush defense in Northwestern. If the offensive line plays about as well as it did in the last three games, Ohio State has a very good shot at the upset.

As a final sidebar before I move onto the prediction; has anyone else noticed that a lot of the bowl season has seen the supposedly stellar Big 12 QBs struggling against OOC defenses? Chase Daniel looked lost for most of the game against Northwestern, Graham Harrell threw two picks and attempted nearly 60 passes against Ole Miss and lost, and Zac Robinson dropped a deuce into the Oregon secondary. I'm not calling the Big 12 "overrated" anytime soon, mostly due to hatred of the term, but it hasn't been an impressive postseason for its signal callers.

Of course, I'd die if Teeps threw four touchdowns to two picks against the 'Horns, as Harrell did against DAREBBAHS, so perhaps I'm making a mountain out of a molehill. It's as encouraging to me as the Big Ten's postseason struggles in general are for Texas fans.

So, a prediction. I've worked on these columns for the better part of a month, and I still don't think I have a great feel for the game. Why? Because I did similar things - for shiggles, mostly, not for blogging - for the Florida and LSU debacles, and predicted games far different from the way they ended up shaking out. I thought Ohio State would trounce Florida, and lose close to the Tigers, and was wrong both times.

So, five chances for me to look like a jackalope come Tuesday:

- Less than 100 yards rushing for Beanie Wells
- More than 200 yards passing for Terrelle Pryor
- "Overrated" chants begin at 10:00 left in the third quarter. Mark May climaxes at 9:50.
- The Buckeyes will pull a Tiller put up a garbage touchdown or two, inspiring Texas to put one last TD on the board to make a point
- Final score: Texas 44, Ohio State 27