The fourth and final part of the statistical analysis of each unit in the Texas-Ohio State Fiesta Bowl. Part one dealt with the Buckeye defense, part two dealt with the Texas offense, and part three covered the Longhorn defense. Finally, we deal with the much-maligned (and justifiably so) Buckeye offense. 
So many pies, so little time.
So many pies, so little time.
This won't be an easy column to write. Throughout the majority of its history, Ohio State has never been a versatile offensive team. If it can't run the ball, it usually cannot win. I'm not sure why we're so shockingly consistent in having a stellar running game with a meh, but not terrible passing game. With the exception of a few years under Walt Harris' explosive, talent-laden offenses in the 90's, this has been the case. It hasn't always been just three yards and a cloud of dust, but when the going got tough, that's what it would go back to more often than not. Brian Cook, dirty hippie and MGoBlogger extraordinare, quantified Michigan's conservative offensive schemes as "throwing rock", because rock always wins and paper and scissors are for commie faggots. Not his exact language, but you get the idea. It began with Bo for Michigan, and it began with Woody for the good guys. It hasn't ended yet, and won't change under Jim Tressel, barring a cataclysmic offensive coordinator hire and the ceding of playcalling duties to said offensive coordinator.
It wasn't considered hyperbole in the preseason magazine to label this the most talented team Jim Tressel has coached, and all the accolades were not reserved for future first rounders James Laurinaitis and Malcolm Jenkins. The offense was seen as a complete package that wouldn't put its defense in bad positions and generally get the job done "managing the game", as the cliche so often runs. It was expected to do a very good job of what Jim Tressel asks his offenses to do, and in the end, it kindasorta did, but in the ugliest fashion it could manage (pun not intended). What was surprising was the frequency with which the offense utterly failed; there is That One Game Out West, the Penn State slugfest, and even the Purdue game. Purdue gave up 41 points to Michigan people. Michigan. The offense alternated between mediocre and bad, which is mostly fine for Tressel, because mediocre has described every offense not led by Troy Smith under his direction.
Time for the wonktastic Google Docs chart. Apologies. Again, I'm discounting the Youngstown game, for all the obvious reasons.
So, yeah, this shouldn't surprise any of you. Ohio State's passing game is anemic, with flashes of competence. In fact, the only times it passed for more yards than the opposing defenses typically allowed, it lost. Thankfully, only one of those games can be attributed to a team letting up off the pedal: USC was up 21-3 at halftime and knew it merely needed to breathe to win in the second half. However, this is not a particularly inspiring set of statistics. There are some things to consider: in blowouts like NW and MSU, and in relatively one-sided affairs like Minnesota and Illinois, Tressel abandons the pass once he gets up ten or more. The passing statistics are softened by Tressel's innate cro-magness, the id within him that believes anything beyond a 10-point vic is achieved only by running up the score. When Ohio State needed a passing game, against Penn State, it had a good deal of success. Of course, Mark Sanchez showed that's not a particularly tall task just last night, but it isn't entirely hopeless for Ohio State. I think that when needed, Jim Tressel can come up with a reasonable facsimile of a passing game. I think he has learned at least a little bit from the Florida debacle in that respect; Ohio State moved the ball through the air fairly well against USC, Penn State, and even last year in the title game against LSU. Of course, it could be argued with two of those three that most of those yards came with Ohio State passing (or attempting to pass) its way out of a deficit. Regardless, I think that if forced to, Ohio State can move the ball through the air against Texas; it did reasonably well against a far better pass D in Penn State.
The problem is the running game. Texas' defense is downright nasty against the run. It's better than Penn State, which does not bode well for the Ohio State running attack. But as you can see, Ohio State went on a tear on the ground in its last three games. One game was against a bad rush D in Illinois, a mediocre one in Texas, and a rather good (top 40) rush defense in Northwestern. If the offensive line plays about as well as it did in the last three games, Ohio State has a very good shot at the upset.
As a final sidebar before I move onto the prediction; has anyone else noticed that a lot of the bowl season has seen the supposedly stellar Big 12 QBs struggling against OOC defenses? Chase Daniel looked lost for most of the game against Northwestern, Graham Harrell threw two picks and attempted nearly 60 passes against Ole Miss and lost, and Zac Robinson dropped a deuce into the Oregon secondary. I'm not calling the Big 12 "overrated" anytime soon, mostly due to hatred of the term, but it hasn't been an impressive postseason for its signal callers.
Of course, I'd die if Teeps threw four touchdowns to two picks against the 'Horns, as Harrell did against DAREBBAHS, so perhaps I'm making a mountain out of a molehill. It's as encouraging to me as the Big Ten's postseason struggles in general are for Texas fans.
So, a prediction. I've worked on these columns for the better part of a month, and I still don't think I have a great feel for the game. Why? Because I did similar things - for shiggles, mostly, not for blogging - for the Florida and LSU debacles, and predicted games far different from the way they ended up shaking out. I thought Ohio State would trounce Florida, and lose close to the Tigers, and was wrong both times.
So, five chances for me to look like a jackalope come Tuesday:
- Less than 100 yards rushing for Beanie Wells
- More than 200 yards passing for Terrelle Pryor
- "Overrated" chants begin at 10:00 left in the third quarter. Mark May climaxes at 9:50.
- The Buckeyes willpull a Tiller put up a garbage touchdown or two, inspiring Texas to put one last TD on the board to make a point
- Final score: Texas 44, Ohio State 27
It wasn't considered hyperbole in the preseason magazine to label this the most talented team Jim Tressel has coached, and all the accolades were not reserved for future first rounders James Laurinaitis and Malcolm Jenkins. The offense was seen as a complete package that wouldn't put its defense in bad positions and generally get the job done "managing the game", as the cliche so often runs. It was expected to do a very good job of what Jim Tressel asks his offenses to do, and in the end, it kindasorta did, but in the ugliest fashion it could manage (pun not intended). What was surprising was the frequency with which the offense utterly failed; there is That One Game Out West, the Penn State slugfest, and even the Purdue game. Purdue gave up 41 points to Michigan people. Michigan. The offense alternated between mediocre and bad, which is mostly fine for Tressel, because mediocre has described every offense not led by Troy Smith under his direction.
Time for the wonktastic Google Docs chart. Apologies. Again, I'm discounting the Youngstown game, for all the obvious reasons.
So, yeah, this shouldn't surprise any of you. Ohio State's passing game is anemic, with flashes of competence. In fact, the only times it passed for more yards than the opposing defenses typically allowed, it lost. Thankfully, only one of those games can be attributed to a team letting up off the pedal: USC was up 21-3 at halftime and knew it merely needed to breathe to win in the second half. However, this is not a particularly inspiring set of statistics. There are some things to consider: in blowouts like NW and MSU, and in relatively one-sided affairs like Minnesota and Illinois, Tressel abandons the pass once he gets up ten or more. The passing statistics are softened by Tressel's innate cro-magness, the id within him that believes anything beyond a 10-point vic is achieved only by running up the score. When Ohio State needed a passing game, against Penn State, it had a good deal of success. Of course, Mark Sanchez showed that's not a particularly tall task just last night, but it isn't entirely hopeless for Ohio State. I think that when needed, Jim Tressel can come up with a reasonable facsimile of a passing game. I think he has learned at least a little bit from the Florida debacle in that respect; Ohio State moved the ball through the air fairly well against USC, Penn State, and even last year in the title game against LSU. Of course, it could be argued with two of those three that most of those yards came with Ohio State passing (or attempting to pass) its way out of a deficit. Regardless, I think that if forced to, Ohio State can move the ball through the air against Texas; it did reasonably well against a far better pass D in Penn State.
The problem is the running game. Texas' defense is downright nasty against the run. It's better than Penn State, which does not bode well for the Ohio State running attack. But as you can see, Ohio State went on a tear on the ground in its last three games. One game was against a bad rush D in Illinois, a mediocre one in Texas, and a rather good (top 40) rush defense in Northwestern. If the offensive line plays about as well as it did in the last three games, Ohio State has a very good shot at the upset.
As a final sidebar before I move onto the prediction; has anyone else noticed that a lot of the bowl season has seen the supposedly stellar Big 12 QBs struggling against OOC defenses? Chase Daniel looked lost for most of the game against Northwestern, Graham Harrell threw two picks and attempted nearly 60 passes against Ole Miss and lost, and Zac Robinson dropped a deuce into the Oregon secondary. I'm not calling the Big 12 "overrated" anytime soon, mostly due to hatred of the term, but it hasn't been an impressive postseason for its signal callers.
Of course, I'd die if Teeps threw four touchdowns to two picks against the 'Horns, as Harrell did against DAREBBAHS, so perhaps I'm making a mountain out of a molehill. It's as encouraging to me as the Big Ten's postseason struggles in general are for Texas fans.
So, a prediction. I've worked on these columns for the better part of a month, and I still don't think I have a great feel for the game. Why? Because I did similar things - for shiggles, mostly, not for blogging - for the Florida and LSU debacles, and predicted games far different from the way they ended up shaking out. I thought Ohio State would trounce Florida, and lose close to the Tigers, and was wrong both times.
So, five chances for me to look like a jackalope come Tuesday:
- Less than 100 yards rushing for Beanie Wells
- More than 200 yards passing for Terrelle Pryor
- "Overrated" chants begin at 10:00 left in the third quarter. Mark May climaxes at 9:50.
- The Buckeyes will
- Final score: Texas 44, Ohio State 27
