Statistical Analysis, Part 4: Ohio State Offense and the Prediction

The fourth and final part of the statistical analysis of each unit in the Texas-Ohio State Fiesta Bowl. Part one dealt with the Buckeye defense, part two dealt with the Texas offense, and part three covered the Longhorn defense. Finally, we deal with the much-maligned (and justifiably so) Buckeye offense.
So many pies, so little time.

This won't be an easy column to write. Throughout the majority of its history, Ohio State has never been a versatile offensive team. If it can't run the ball, it usually cannot win. I'm not sure why we're so shockingly consistent in having a stellar running game with a meh, but not terrible passing game. With the exception of a few years under Walt Harris' explosive, talent-laden offenses in the 90's, this has been the case. It hasn't always been just three yards and a cloud of dust, but when the going got tough, that's what it would go back to more often than not. Brian Cook, dirty hippie and MGoBlogger extraordinare, quantified Michigan's conservative offensive schemes as "throwing rock", because rock always wins and paper and scissors are for commie faggots. Not his exact language, but you get the idea. It began with Bo for Michigan, and it began with Woody for the good guys. It hasn't ended yet, and won't change under Jim Tressel, barring a cataclysmic offensive coordinator hire and the ceding of playcalling duties to said offensive coordinator.

It wasn't considered hyperbole in the preseason magazine to label this the most talented team Jim Tressel has coached, and all the accolades were not reserved for future first rounders James Laurinaitis and Malcolm Jenkins. The offense was seen as a complete package that wouldn't put its defense in bad positions and generally get the job done "managing the game", as the cliche so often runs. It was expected to do a very good job of what Jim Tressel asks his offenses to do, and in the end, it kindasorta did, but in the ugliest fashion it could manage (pun not intended). What was surprising was the frequency with which the offense utterly failed; there is That One Game Out West, the Penn State slugfest, and even the Purdue game. Purdue gave up 41 points to Michigan people. Michigan. The offense alternated between mediocre and bad, which is mostly fine for Tressel, because mediocre has described every offense not led by Troy Smith under his direction.

Time for the wonktastic Google Docs chart. Apologies. Again, I'm discounting the Youngstown game, for all the obvious reasons.



So, yeah, this shouldn't surprise any of you. Ohio State's passing game is anemic, with flashes of competence. In fact, the only times it passed for more yards than the opposing defenses typically allowed, it lost. Thankfully, only one of those games can be attributed to a team letting up off the pedal: USC was up 21-3 at halftime and knew it merely needed to breathe to win in the second half. However, this is not a particularly inspiring set of statistics. There are some things to consider: in blowouts like NW and MSU, and in relatively one-sided affairs like Minnesota and Illinois, Tressel abandons the pass once he gets up ten or more. The passing statistics are softened by Tressel's innate cro-magness, the id within him that believes anything beyond a 10-point vic is achieved only by running up the score. When Ohio State needed a passing game, against Penn State, it had a good deal of success. Of course, Mark Sanchez showed that's not a particularly tall task just last night, but it isn't entirely hopeless for Ohio State. I think that when needed, Jim Tressel can come up with a reasonable facsimile of a passing game. I think he has learned at least a little bit from the Florida debacle in that respect; Ohio State moved the ball through the air fairly well against USC, Penn State, and even last year in the title game against LSU. Of course, it could be argued with two of those three that most of those yards came with Ohio State passing (or attempting to pass) its way out of a deficit. Regardless, I think that if forced to, Ohio State can move the ball through the air against Texas; it did reasonably well against a far better pass D in Penn State.

The problem is the running game. Texas' defense is downright nasty against the run. It's better than Penn State, which does not bode well for the Ohio State running attack. But as you can see, Ohio State went on a tear on the ground in its last three games. One game was against a bad rush D in Illinois, a mediocre one in Texas, and a rather good (top 40) rush defense in Northwestern. If the offensive line plays about as well as it did in the last three games, Ohio State has a very good shot at the upset.

As a final sidebar before I move onto the prediction; has anyone else noticed that a lot of the bowl season has seen the supposedly stellar Big 12 QBs struggling against OOC defenses? Chase Daniel looked lost for most of the game against Northwestern, Graham Harrell threw two picks and attempted nearly 60 passes against Ole Miss and lost, and Zac Robinson dropped a deuce into the Oregon secondary. I'm not calling the Big 12 "overrated" anytime soon, mostly due to hatred of the term, but it hasn't been an impressive postseason for its signal callers.

Of course, I'd die if Teeps threw four touchdowns to two picks against the 'Horns, as Harrell did against DAREBBAHS, so perhaps I'm making a mountain out of a molehill. It's as encouraging to me as the Big Ten's postseason struggles in general are for Texas fans.

So, a prediction. I've worked on these columns for the better part of a month, and I still don't think I have a great feel for the game. Why? Because I did similar things - for shiggles, mostly, not for blogging - for the Florida and LSU debacles, and predicted games far different from the way they ended up shaking out. I thought Ohio State would trounce Florida, and lose close to the Tigers, and was wrong both times.

So, five chances for me to look like a jackalope come Tuesday:

- Less than 100 yards rushing for Beanie Wells
- More than 200 yards passing for Terrelle Pryor
- "Overrated" chants begin at 10:00 left in the third quarter. Mark May climaxes at 9:50.
- The Buckeyes will pull a Tiller put up a garbage touchdown or two, inspiring Texas to put one last TD on the board to make a point
- Final score: Texas 44, Ohio State 27

It's Tejas

"Watch this, Lis. You can actually pinpoint the second his heart rips in half."

While it is far from the best of all possible match-ups, Ohio State has drawn a relatively favorable one in Texas. In the Fiesta bowl, too, where we had so much success before the Game That Shall Not Be Named, though Buckeye partisans are sure to point out that that wasn't actually the Fiesta Bowl, just a national championship game played at the Fiesta Bowl site. Whatev. What matters is Ohio State is 3-1 in Tempe, and the last four trips there have showcased partisan Buckeye crowds. Given the results of the last two bowl games and the spiraling deathstorm that the gubmint calls an economy, bowl attendance for Ohio State is likely to take a hit. Yes, the Buckeyes are typically one of the best traveling fanbases, but so is Texas, and I'd be shocked in the crowd isn't basically split down the middle.

I like this match-up for a number of reasons. First, Texas has a terrific fanbase. I went to the game in '05 and by far they were the best of any visiting group of fans. Predictably, they were treated awfully by most of Buckeye nation, but the hilljacks Ohio State fans I sat near were very cordial to the visitors. The atmosphere was suitably tense for most of the game, but the vulgar language was directed toward the field (three audible "RIP HIS FUCKING HEAD OFF"-s when Vince Young toted the ball), and not at the opposing fans, which was nice. The horror stories I've heard from that night are undoubtedly true, but it seems Texas fans in my section took it in stride if they were victimized in any way.

Second, Texas' defense leaves a lot to be desired. They're vastly improved from last year, given the acquisition of the Right Honourable Boom Motherfucker, Esq., head coach-in-waiting and card-carrying twisted psycho. Nonetheless, Texas has been a bend-but-don't-break defense for most of the year, getting aggressive when need be but giving up yards in bunches, mostly through the air.

Third, Texas has one thing it does really well on offense, and that is airing it out. RoboColt completes roughly 77 percent of his passes last I checked, but (probably) hasn't seen a secondary as good as Ohio State's all year. Secondly, Texas doesn't have many burners in the vein of Damien Williams from SC or Percy Harvin from Florida. They're there, but they're either young or not starting. I fully expect Texas to put as much speed on the field as it can against Ohio State, because while the Buckeyes don't lack speed (grr), they have had trouble stopping speedsters with their soft zone approach, which more often than not makes the Buckeyes look slow.

Fourth, there is one team Texas played all year that looks certifiably like Ohio State's offense, and it's Oklahoma State. Texas barely beat Okie State 28-24 in Austin. The same Okie State team traveled to Lubbock weeks later and found itself the victim of a 35-point beatdown at the hands of Texas Tech. Okie State is not particularly good. There is a problem: Okie State has a passing game. Texas could not stack the box against Okie State because Zac Robinson is a true dual threat with a playmaker like Dez Bryant to throw to, unlike the One at this point in his career. Ohio State absolutely must attack Texas' secondary, the weakest part of the defense, in order to win. If they cannot do this, Texas will stack the box, like Penn State and USC, and dare Ohio State to throw its way to a win. Terrelle Pryor has not shown he can do that yet. If there is any time for the Ohio State passing game's coming out party against a sub-par pass defense, it is now.

This is by far the most winnable BCS game in which Ohio State could have landed. Those of you who care about our program's "reputation" should enjoy this match-up as a chance for Ohio State to show it really can beat the Big Boys. By no means is Texas overrated, or is Ohio State underrated. These teams are where they deserve to be in the polls. The line is currently at 10 and will likely move up come game time. This game is on the coaching staff, because this team is undoubtedly talented enough to win this game, and every game it had on its schedule for that matter, but I digress. The coordinators have one last chance to impress. Regardless of how this game goes, I'd like to see them gone gone gone in the offseason. But a win against a genuinely good team earns them a little of our patience. I fully expect them, when given said patience, to flush the opportunities it presents down the toilet come September, but maybe that's just me.

In the coming weeks I'll be doing unit breakdowns and match-ups as bowl preview. I fully expect analysis of the facts to improve my outlook of the game, but I caution against any and all optimism on the grounds that I grew more optimistic while examining the stats prior to the LSU game last year, and then reality promptly took a nice giant nutty shit on my happy little world come January 7th.

Sittin' on top of the world, part 3

Part three of a three-part series of incoherent rants, jumbled musings and confused bullhockey about the last three seasons. Highlighted here is the Season of Upstarts and Broken Hearts, 2008.


So, it was 2008, I guess. We had a pretty good football team coming in, I guess. Number three in the country or something. I wasn't ready to get excited about much of anything, because regardless of how the season began and where we ranked in whatever preseason poll was being thrown out based entirely on program reputation, the fate of the entire season hinged on one game. In a down conference, after two years of embarassment, Ohio State had one shot to "redeem itself". As most of you probably already know, it did not. In the wake: "sputtering rage, gibbering condemnation and resigned ennui" as That Dirty Hippie Up North so eloquently put it. The one thing I actually cheered about all night was when Marcus Freeman finally got to Mark 'Dirté' Sanchez on a 4th down sack, when the game was already over, and the Humanitarian was running up the score to impress the voters. I don't have anything against Carroll or USC or running up the score; I just simply pumped my fist and let out a little, defeated "yeah!" from the comfort of my living room couch. Looking back at this, I realize now why exactly I was cheering a great play by a team down 32 points: it still had some measure of fight left in it. Say what you will about Heacock, Bollman, the Vest and their failures on the national stage and I will probably agree with 90% of it. But don't you ever knock this group of seniors for anything outside of the occasional blown assignment or missed block. Marcus Freeman, James Laurinaitis, Alex Boone, Malcolm Jenkins, and every other senior on that roster has invested anywhere from 4 to 6 years in the program, and every single one of them deserves our admiration, thanks, and utmost respect for representing the university most of you attended and nearly all of my readers (all three of you) cheer for. Marcus Freeman had been relegated to pass coverage and blitzing on only the most obvious downs all night, and even though it was hopeless and there was nothing but embarassment and shame and resigned ennuie to be had after this game, he still fought to the end as best he could. Like a fucking warrior-poet.

Ohio State again had a shot at redeeming this season if not the program as a whole in its night home game against Penn State. In a game I still can't entirely explain, the Ohio State defense held up against an offense that looked unstoppable against everyone save a fluky game against Purdue. Heacock, despite Penn State's athletic WRs and RBs and spread offense, did not chicken out and play soft. He played man on occasion, blitzed on unconventional downs, and the defensive line actually got pressure - plenty of it -on Daryl Clark. Penn State was held to its lowest scoring output of the season, and needed two freshman mistakes by the One to get out of Columbus alive. For the third time in 2008, Ohio State was held without an offensive touchdown. The best game Jim Heacock had coached since Texas in 2005 was ignored largely because of the failures of Jim Bollman's side of the ball. But that loss, and the other offensive woes, can not easily be laid entirely at the feet of Jim Bollman. After all, he's a glorified line coach. He's Mike Debord with a Buckstache. Tressel is the balla, shot-calla of the offense. He chooses the plays. Apparently, Bollman literally suggests three or four plays and Tressel just picks one. Not only is this somewhat disturbing, it's disheartening that Bollman is receiving criticism, much like Ohio State, over something he doesn't have as much control over as people would like to believe. The rest of Ohio State's season was so nondescript I can sum every game up in basically one sentence: Pryor attempts less than 15 passes, Beanie Wells solidifies his draft stock when playing, the running game muddles along okay without him, and the offensive line consistently gets owned by the 2-star and 3-star Jimmies and Joes of Northwestern and Ohio. Terrelle Pryor has been nothing but impressive. He has made his freshman mistakes - taking large, drive-killing sacks chief among them - but they have not come in the form of constant turnovers, or really anything that would make you even begin to think he might not be the long-term answer at QB. Other youngsters impressed, Dan Herron and Michael Brewster chief among them, and Jermale "the Jackhammer" Hines looked impressive filling in for Kurt Coleman when he could. It was by no means a youth movement, but it was encouraging to see the next iteration of Ohio State football taking shape in these younger players.

The season was a disappointment. I don't think anyone can argue around that. This was the most talented team Jim Tressel has coached. Outside of a tough road date at USC, it was reasonable to expect an undefeated season. We had a sixth year (!) senior at quarterback, three seniors on the offensive line, arguably the best cover corner in the country, and a top-5 linebacker corps. Typically, the expectations of the Ohio State fanbase are a bit much, to put it lightly. There are many in our fanbase who think it is our birthright to go undefeated every year and that anything less is simply unacceptable. Personally, I am under no illusions that Ohio State fans are "owed" anything, or that even while donating millions of dollars to the AD that they "deserve" something. There is a difference between expectations and demands. I expected an undefeated season, but I'm not opening up Lane Avenue Torch and Pitfork over a two-loss season.

Nonetheless - and this is something I think all CFB fans can agree on - Ohio State is developing a character, and this year did nothing but reinforce it. Come the big games against the supposed big boys, Ohio State crumples. It fails. It dies trying. Whatever happens, it defies simple explanation. Some attempt to take the easy route and blame Ohio State's "lack of athleticism" (Mark May, Colin Cowherd, Todd McShay) even while their colleagues continually place Ohio State players at or near the top of their NFL draft boards at basically every position. Others point to Ohio State's soft conference schedule, something over which the Buckeyes have no control. In 2007, people pointed to the lackluster OOC schedule, featuring two macrifices, a D-1AA team and a Washington game scheduled years ago, shortly after Washington won a Rose Bowl. Again, this isn't something Ohio State can easily control. Most of the Ohio State fanbase faults the two coordinators: Jim Bollman and Jim Heacock. These two are easy targets, given their staid, consistent-yet-underwhelming schemes and the general perception that Tressel is still one of the top-five coaches in America.

As usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle of that clusterfuck. I buy arguments regarding Ohio State's conference being down because the counter-argument literally doesn't exist, I buy arguments about the two coordinators, and I can see why people think Ohio State lacks athletes, even though to do so, I must forget most of what I know about football, defensive and offensive schemes, gap assignments, reads, so on and so forth. The problem is not, and will probably never be a lack of athletes. There is no unifying cause of Ohio State's problems in the "big game", but I do think these problems will begin to be addressed by doing the following.

1. Give Heacock and Bollman a nice, long sabbatical/vacay in Naples, and bar them from entering the state of Ohio for any reason other than to visit family ever again.

2. Tressel must cede playcalling to Bollman's replacement. He will be compensated with a lifetime supply of Bonbons and a private Beach Boys (what's left of them) concert.

3. Hire Mike Barwis or one of the wolves who raised him as S+C coach. Steve Rehring, in both attitude and physical shape, is the embodiment of everything wrong with the Ohio State offensive line. In the offseason, he claimed he should be given time off from practice because he's been their for four years and knows what's going on. In 2007, he showed up to camp at a nice, lean 350 fucking pounds and lost his starting job as a result (which he would win back after dropping supposedly 30, maybe 10-15 lbs). The entire offensive line is resting on laurels it doesn't even have.

Sigh. I should probably wrap this up, shouldn't I?

The last three years have been interesting, to say the least, if you're an Ohio State fan. It all started with a monumental win at 2nd-ranked Texas in 2006, and three years later, it's come full circle to a rubber match with the Longhorns in the Fiesta Bowl. Many, including myself to some extent, won't give the Buckeyes a chance. 90% of the idiots who don't give Ohio State a chance will claim that Ohio State "can't win the Big Game", while simultaneously calling this a "rubber match" after Ohio State 24-7 triumph in 1 vs. 2 in Austin (seems like a somewhat big game) and Texas' 25-22 escape from Columbus in a game in which both teams were also ranked in the top ten. This era of Ohio State football isn't set in stone yet, despite all the negativity surrounding the program and its players. The coaching staff must put together one of the best gameplans they have in their time here, to send these seniors, ones that they have failed four consecutive times in the biggest games of their lives, off on a high note. If anyone is owed anything, it's these guys: