Statistical Analysis, Part One: Ohio State Defense

The first in a four part statistical analysis of each unit in the Texas-Ohio State Fiesta Bowl. Part one will deal with the Buckeye defense, part two the 'Horns offense, part three the Texas defense, and part four the Ohio State offense. Most will probably agree I'm not saving the best for last.

You want a legacy, boys, aside from two title game flops that weren't really your fault? Now's your shot. Do work, son(s).


Ohio State fans can be mostly sure what the media meme this year will be: Texas' speedy, versatile offense, laden with sure-fire first rounders will absolutely shred the overrated, slow, unathletic Ohio State defense, all of whom will be lucky to get drafted (but ignore the fact that we have two, possibly three of them going in the first round on all of our draft boards the man behind the curtain!)

Serious fans of college football know things aren't quite so simple. Outside of a debacle against USC, Ohio State's defense has been more or less impenetrable. While not a rabid pack of fuck lions in the vein of Alabama and USC, the Buckeyes have seen steady improvement throughout the season, the highlight of which was limiting Penn State's potent, versatile offense to just 13 points and one offensive touchdown (off of a turnover, no less) through four quarters in Columbus. Ohio State used a complex package of blitzes, man-to-man coverage and general luck with its usual soft zone in holding Penn State four touchdowns below its average score. Not only was this arguably the most impressive performance of the defense in the last three years, it was possibly the best coaching job Heacock has done since holding, interestingly enough, Vince Young-led Texas to 25 points in Columbus, a game also ulimately decided by turnovers. For once, I cannot lay the blame for a big game loss at the feet of both Jims, because Heacock did a heck of a job (Brownie), and I can't take anything away from his accomplishment. But across the year, the defense retained its bend-but-don't-break modus operandi, giving up yards aplenty but calming down and executing when it had to.

Statistical analysis means charts, or rather a spreadsheet. I have thrown out the Youngstown game, because a) it was a travesty that it was even scheduled and b) it was competitive for about fifteen seconds in the first quarter. Anyway, here we go. You can scroll right and left or up and down as need be.




(I am aware that the above chart is rather jankity in both look and feel, but it gets the point across. If you know of a better way to upload .xls files, I'd like to hear it. For now, we get sadness, despair and Google Docs. A screw- up I don't feel like correcting: APY in the first column is supposed to be ARY, or average rushing yards. For the dimmest of you out there, APY stands for average passing yards for the season)

I want to caution against excess optimism you may get from the USC game, mainly due to the fact that, simply eyeballing the stats, it doesn't look too bad. But no, if you remember the game, they are not. At no point in the game did USC have any trouble moving the ball with consistency against the Buckeye soft zone, at least while the game was still in doubt (i.e. up until the Rey-Rey pick six). But the ugliness of the final score cannot be put entirely on the defense; the offense turned the ball over and more often than not punted in situations that gave USC excellent field position. Like Florida and to a lesser extent LSU, USC enjoyed short fields and time-consuming drives.

Nonetheless, Ohio State's defense hasn't been anything short of impressive the rest of the year, though certainly lackluster at points. 200 rushing yards to Illinois is acceptable, but not encouraging. Wisconsin's penultimate drive in which they encountered little resistance from any part of the defense is troubling, especially against a "pro-style" (i.e. non-spread) offense that, if you listen to Ohio State fans, we "usually dominate" (meaning Lloyd-Carr era Michigan and Joe Pa's ponderous rock-throwing offenses of the early 2000's). But by and large, it's nitpicking. USC didn't have as good of a day as it might at first seem, short fields or not, and Penn State's passing attack was wholly shut down. Really, as you look across the season, no one passed all over the Buckeyes, and for the most part the last few years, limiting the opposing passing game has been Heacock's specialty, if not shutting it down entirely. Florida's spread barely cracked 200 against the Buckeyes, and Matt Flynn only tossed for 174 yards against the OSU secondary in LSU's title win. Historically, Ohio State is a very good team against the pass under Heacock. Against LSU, Florida and USC, short fields and offensive turnovers had as much to do with the ugly finals as bad defense did. Preventing short fields against the APOCB-certified Downright 'Donkulous (©) Texas offense will be key to Ohio State even keeping the game close, much less winning. Ironically, the onus is on the special teams to let the defense do what it does best: stop people in the red zone after long, sustained drives. It has a tough task against Jordan Shipley, bonafide white guy "possession receiver" with deceptive speed/surprising athleticism/incredible toughness, who single-handedly shifted momentum in both the OU and Texas Tech games.

Next, I'll be discussing Texas' potent, somewhat one-dimensional offense, and issuing an idiotic blanket prediction about how I think the two will match-up based on given evidence.