Statistical Analysis, Part 2: Texas Offense

The second in a four part statistical analysis of each unit in the Texas-Ohio State Fiesta Bowl. Part one dealt with the Buckeye defense, part two deals the 'Horns offense.

Twelve: Number on his jersey, or his real age?

Every superlative you can think of has been applied to the Texas offense, so I'm not going to waste your time: they're good. Scary good. Beat Oklahoma like a redheaded stepchild good. They are not unstoppable. No one is. Except for Florida 2008. But really, no one is. Texas has relied on its offense to carry the season, because it's defense certainly can't (or at least has not shown the ability to) pick up the slack. Part of that is attributable to ridiculous Big 12 offenses like Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and even Missouri and Kansas. Nonetheless, the defense has been subpar, especially by Will Muschamp's standards (not Muskamp, Bob "Melanoma" Davie).

Prior to the statistical analysis, I believed there are two offenses Ohio State has faced comparable to Texas: Illinois and Penn State. Ohio State struggled with the former, and performed suprisingly well against the latter. I also assumed Colt McCoy is liable to take off and run more than either of the two quarterbacks in both systems, and I don't need to remind you that Ohio State struggles against mobile quarterbacks, but I'll do it anyway. We'll see how these assumptions hold up in a minute.

I know that Google Docs sucks a wheelbarrow full of lobster-sized dicks, but bear with me so I don't have to learn anything complicated.

A key, if you need it:

APYA = Average pass yards allowed
ARYA = Average rush yards allowed

Figure out the rest for yourself.



The chart really doesn't tell you anything you shouldn't already know; more often than not, Texas' offense is housing fools. It doesn't do it in the balanced manner expected of great offenses, but it does it nonetheless. Some of the surprisingly bad/lackluster stats (UTEP, Colorado) can be attributed to the calling off of the proverbial dogs. Against Kansas, the 'Horns were up 35-7 after three. Texas A+M was a laugher almost from the start. I would not put much stock in subpar stats in most games that ended up being blowouts.

Nonetheless, there are a few key games where Texas struggled. Texas Tech is the most obvious one. For a half, Colt McCoy by his own damn self the Texas offense was kept under wraps by a smothering Texas Tech defense, which also happens to be the second-most balanced defense in the Big 12 behind Nebraska (6th vs run, 3rd vs pass). Nevertheless, Colt McCoy put the team on his back (again) and rallied Texas to a 33-32 lead. Buttergfingers in the Texas secondary and one Play of the Year of the Week later, Texas lost, but not because of any failure from the offense. Well maybe the rush offense, which was nonexistent against a unit it should have done better against. Still, the point stands: no one has truly shut down Texas for any more than a half. The offense runs in fits and starts on occassion, but Texas' fits and starts would be Nebraska '95 in the Big Ten, ACC and yeah, the SEC this year. They're that good. Not unstoppable, but definitely difficult to slow down. Even Heacock will get a bit of a pass if he gives up 30 to these guys.

My initial assumptions about Texas' offense and offenses similar to it in the Big 10 was largely correct, but I think Penn State has a far, far better running game. It isn't one guy, for starters. Okay, that's an oversimplification. Nonetheless, no team wants it quarterback to be its leading rusher unless that team is Georgia Tech. For whatever reason, Texas could not get its rushing game unstuck against some opponents (UTEP, Okie State) and obliterated others with it (Colorado, Okie). If you want to understand how hard Texas' rushing attack is to appraise, the best rushing defense nationally it faced all year was Oklahoma, and you can see above how that worked out. But against the 44th-ranked rush D of Texas Tech, it netted 80 whopping yards (almost as many yards total offense as OSU had in the '06 title game wa-hey!) In an odd coincidence, Ohio State is ranked literally just below the Sooners in rush defense, but it can be argued that the Sooners are so good against the run because they're so bad against the pass. Like, 110th in the country bad. One thing is certain: Ohio State will be the most balanced defense the Longhorns have faced, by far.

Fortunately, Ohio State's defense versus Texas' offense will be a matchup of strength on strength in the purest terms. Literally, it's Texas' downright sick passing game versus Ohio State's very good - but not great - secondary. I fully expect Malcolm Jenkins to more or less lock down Jordan Shipley. The onus is on the rest of the secondary to limit Quan Cosby et al. as best they can. I do not think Ohio State will keep McCoy under 200 yards as it did to both Mark Sanchez and Matt Flynn, for the following reasons: His name is "Colt McCoy", ARGH SOFT ZONE BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD ARGH, and I'm not convinced either Sanchez or Flynn are half the QB McCoy is.

HOWEVA (credit to MGoBlog), there is hope. Texas' lack of a consistent rushing attack from anyone other than Colt means that if the front seven does its job against the running game, the secondary may get help from the linebackers, cutting off Texas' butter ins, outs and slant routes. This is not a great downfield passing game, but neither were LSU or Florida. But both of those teams could generate a serious rushing attack when it mattered most. I'm not sure Texas can with any consistency. If Ohio State does the impossible and shuts down the Texas passing game, the rushing game simply won't be able to make up for it, due to its own deficiencies and Ohio State's typically stellar rush D.

The difference between Ohio State and every defense Texas has played is that it actually has a living, breathing secondary, something no Big 12 team seems to have. Fun fact: Colorado was the number one pass defense in the Big 12, allowing just 215 yards a game. Arkansas was 10th in the SEC allowing 208 yards per game. What does this mean? Probably bupkis. Name one reasonably good QB in the SEC not named Stafford or Tebow. Still, if you buy into the perception that Big 12 defenses are simply atrocious as a group, your viewpoint softens a little bit. Regardless of what you believe, it's hard to argue that the Buckeye defense isn't the most balanced defense the Longhorns will play all year, and provided Heacock coaches about as well as he did versus PSU, it should keep the game from becoming yet another ugly blow out. Cross your fingers.

Personally, I'm not all that optimistic. For all the progress Jim Heacock appeared to show against Penn State, he regressed against Illinois. As you saw in the last post, Illinois basically did what it wanted with the Ohio State defense in Champaign, and was killed in the end by frequent turnovers. Illinois also had a ridiculous pass offfense and a meh rush offense, and torched the Buckeyes doing both. Illinois was starting Juice "40%" Williams, people. I don't care how much he's improved, he'll always be "40%" to me. Regardless of what you think of him, he's not Colt McCoy. Daniel Dufrene is not Chris Ogbonnaya. Arrelious Benn is probably not Jordan Shipley or Quan Cosby, though Arrelious was quite limited against the Buckeyes. Still, I don't think Heacock has learned much if at all. I'll be surprised if Ohio State's defense, as good as it may seem, holds Texas under 30 points if it again deploys the same defensive game plan it did in every big game prior to the one against Penn State. Then again, maybe Heacock has some voodoo over Mack Brown, because even with Vince Young, Limas Sweed, Selvin Young et al. Texas was only able to score 25 points on Ohio State in 2005, and 7 in McCoy's first (important) start as a Longhorn. Maybe Heacock has pictures of Mack Brown making a blumpkin pie with a goat that he'll release if Mack ever beats us by more than three. Or something. The prognosis is still not good. I'll believe - hesitantly - in Heacock again if he can actually gameplan to stop this offense.