Statistical Analysis, Part 4: Ohio State Offense and the Prediction

The fourth and final part of the statistical analysis of each unit in the Texas-Ohio State Fiesta Bowl. Part one dealt with the Buckeye defense, part two dealt with the Texas offense, and part three covered the Longhorn defense. Finally, we deal with the much-maligned (and justifiably so) Buckeye offense.
So many pies, so little time.

This won't be an easy column to write. Throughout the majority of its history, Ohio State has never been a versatile offensive team. If it can't run the ball, it usually cannot win. I'm not sure why we're so shockingly consistent in having a stellar running game with a meh, but not terrible passing game. With the exception of a few years under Walt Harris' explosive, talent-laden offenses in the 90's, this has been the case. It hasn't always been just three yards and a cloud of dust, but when the going got tough, that's what it would go back to more often than not. Brian Cook, dirty hippie and MGoBlogger extraordinare, quantified Michigan's conservative offensive schemes as "throwing rock", because rock always wins and paper and scissors are for commie faggots. Not his exact language, but you get the idea. It began with Bo for Michigan, and it began with Woody for the good guys. It hasn't ended yet, and won't change under Jim Tressel, barring a cataclysmic offensive coordinator hire and the ceding of playcalling duties to said offensive coordinator.

It wasn't considered hyperbole in the preseason magazine to label this the most talented team Jim Tressel has coached, and all the accolades were not reserved for future first rounders James Laurinaitis and Malcolm Jenkins. The offense was seen as a complete package that wouldn't put its defense in bad positions and generally get the job done "managing the game", as the cliche so often runs. It was expected to do a very good job of what Jim Tressel asks his offenses to do, and in the end, it kindasorta did, but in the ugliest fashion it could manage (pun not intended). What was surprising was the frequency with which the offense utterly failed; there is That One Game Out West, the Penn State slugfest, and even the Purdue game. Purdue gave up 41 points to Michigan people. Michigan. The offense alternated between mediocre and bad, which is mostly fine for Tressel, because mediocre has described every offense not led by Troy Smith under his direction.

Time for the wonktastic Google Docs chart. Apologies. Again, I'm discounting the Youngstown game, for all the obvious reasons.



So, yeah, this shouldn't surprise any of you. Ohio State's passing game is anemic, with flashes of competence. In fact, the only times it passed for more yards than the opposing defenses typically allowed, it lost. Thankfully, only one of those games can be attributed to a team letting up off the pedal: USC was up 21-3 at halftime and knew it merely needed to breathe to win in the second half. However, this is not a particularly inspiring set of statistics. There are some things to consider: in blowouts like NW and MSU, and in relatively one-sided affairs like Minnesota and Illinois, Tressel abandons the pass once he gets up ten or more. The passing statistics are softened by Tressel's innate cro-magness, the id within him that believes anything beyond a 10-point vic is achieved only by running up the score. When Ohio State needed a passing game, against Penn State, it had a good deal of success. Of course, Mark Sanchez showed that's not a particularly tall task just last night, but it isn't entirely hopeless for Ohio State. I think that when needed, Jim Tressel can come up with a reasonable facsimile of a passing game. I think he has learned at least a little bit from the Florida debacle in that respect; Ohio State moved the ball through the air fairly well against USC, Penn State, and even last year in the title game against LSU. Of course, it could be argued with two of those three that most of those yards came with Ohio State passing (or attempting to pass) its way out of a deficit. Regardless, I think that if forced to, Ohio State can move the ball through the air against Texas; it did reasonably well against a far better pass D in Penn State.

The problem is the running game. Texas' defense is downright nasty against the run. It's better than Penn State, which does not bode well for the Ohio State running attack. But as you can see, Ohio State went on a tear on the ground in its last three games. One game was against a bad rush D in Illinois, a mediocre one in Texas, and a rather good (top 40) rush defense in Northwestern. If the offensive line plays about as well as it did in the last three games, Ohio State has a very good shot at the upset.

As a final sidebar before I move onto the prediction; has anyone else noticed that a lot of the bowl season has seen the supposedly stellar Big 12 QBs struggling against OOC defenses? Chase Daniel looked lost for most of the game against Northwestern, Graham Harrell threw two picks and attempted nearly 60 passes against Ole Miss and lost, and Zac Robinson dropped a deuce into the Oregon secondary. I'm not calling the Big 12 "overrated" anytime soon, mostly due to hatred of the term, but it hasn't been an impressive postseason for its signal callers.

Of course, I'd die if Teeps threw four touchdowns to two picks against the 'Horns, as Harrell did against DAREBBAHS, so perhaps I'm making a mountain out of a molehill. It's as encouraging to me as the Big Ten's postseason struggles in general are for Texas fans.

So, a prediction. I've worked on these columns for the better part of a month, and I still don't think I have a great feel for the game. Why? Because I did similar things - for shiggles, mostly, not for blogging - for the Florida and LSU debacles, and predicted games far different from the way they ended up shaking out. I thought Ohio State would trounce Florida, and lose close to the Tigers, and was wrong both times.

So, five chances for me to look like a jackalope come Tuesday:

- Less than 100 yards rushing for Beanie Wells
- More than 200 yards passing for Terrelle Pryor
- "Overrated" chants begin at 10:00 left in the third quarter. Mark May climaxes at 9:50.
- The Buckeyes will pull a Tiller put up a garbage touchdown or two, inspiring Texas to put one last TD on the board to make a point
- Final score: Texas 44, Ohio State 27

Statistical Analysis, Part One: Ohio State Defense

The first in a four part statistical analysis of each unit in the Texas-Ohio State Fiesta Bowl. Part one will deal with the Buckeye defense, part two the 'Horns offense, part three the Texas defense, and part four the Ohio State offense. Most will probably agree I'm not saving the best for last.

You want a legacy, boys, aside from two title game flops that weren't really your fault? Now's your shot. Do work, son(s).


Ohio State fans can be mostly sure what the media meme this year will be: Texas' speedy, versatile offense, laden with sure-fire first rounders will absolutely shred the overrated, slow, unathletic Ohio State defense, all of whom will be lucky to get drafted (but ignore the fact that we have two, possibly three of them going in the first round on all of our draft boards the man behind the curtain!)

Serious fans of college football know things aren't quite so simple. Outside of a debacle against USC, Ohio State's defense has been more or less impenetrable. While not a rabid pack of fuck lions in the vein of Alabama and USC, the Buckeyes have seen steady improvement throughout the season, the highlight of which was limiting Penn State's potent, versatile offense to just 13 points and one offensive touchdown (off of a turnover, no less) through four quarters in Columbus. Ohio State used a complex package of blitzes, man-to-man coverage and general luck with its usual soft zone in holding Penn State four touchdowns below its average score. Not only was this arguably the most impressive performance of the defense in the last three years, it was possibly the best coaching job Heacock has done since holding, interestingly enough, Vince Young-led Texas to 25 points in Columbus, a game also ulimately decided by turnovers. For once, I cannot lay the blame for a big game loss at the feet of both Jims, because Heacock did a heck of a job (Brownie), and I can't take anything away from his accomplishment. But across the year, the defense retained its bend-but-don't-break modus operandi, giving up yards aplenty but calming down and executing when it had to.

Statistical analysis means charts, or rather a spreadsheet. I have thrown out the Youngstown game, because a) it was a travesty that it was even scheduled and b) it was competitive for about fifteen seconds in the first quarter. Anyway, here we go. You can scroll right and left or up and down as need be.




(I am aware that the above chart is rather jankity in both look and feel, but it gets the point across. If you know of a better way to upload .xls files, I'd like to hear it. For now, we get sadness, despair and Google Docs. A screw- up I don't feel like correcting: APY in the first column is supposed to be ARY, or average rushing yards. For the dimmest of you out there, APY stands for average passing yards for the season)

I want to caution against excess optimism you may get from the USC game, mainly due to the fact that, simply eyeballing the stats, it doesn't look too bad. But no, if you remember the game, they are not. At no point in the game did USC have any trouble moving the ball with consistency against the Buckeye soft zone, at least while the game was still in doubt (i.e. up until the Rey-Rey pick six). But the ugliness of the final score cannot be put entirely on the defense; the offense turned the ball over and more often than not punted in situations that gave USC excellent field position. Like Florida and to a lesser extent LSU, USC enjoyed short fields and time-consuming drives.

Nonetheless, Ohio State's defense hasn't been anything short of impressive the rest of the year, though certainly lackluster at points. 200 rushing yards to Illinois is acceptable, but not encouraging. Wisconsin's penultimate drive in which they encountered little resistance from any part of the defense is troubling, especially against a "pro-style" (i.e. non-spread) offense that, if you listen to Ohio State fans, we "usually dominate" (meaning Lloyd-Carr era Michigan and Joe Pa's ponderous rock-throwing offenses of the early 2000's). But by and large, it's nitpicking. USC didn't have as good of a day as it might at first seem, short fields or not, and Penn State's passing attack was wholly shut down. Really, as you look across the season, no one passed all over the Buckeyes, and for the most part the last few years, limiting the opposing passing game has been Heacock's specialty, if not shutting it down entirely. Florida's spread barely cracked 200 against the Buckeyes, and Matt Flynn only tossed for 174 yards against the OSU secondary in LSU's title win. Historically, Ohio State is a very good team against the pass under Heacock. Against LSU, Florida and USC, short fields and offensive turnovers had as much to do with the ugly finals as bad defense did. Preventing short fields against the APOCB-certified Downright 'Donkulous (©) Texas offense will be key to Ohio State even keeping the game close, much less winning. Ironically, the onus is on the special teams to let the defense do what it does best: stop people in the red zone after long, sustained drives. It has a tough task against Jordan Shipley, bonafide white guy "possession receiver" with deceptive speed/surprising athleticism/incredible toughness, who single-handedly shifted momentum in both the OU and Texas Tech games.

Next, I'll be discussing Texas' potent, somewhat one-dimensional offense, and issuing an idiotic blanket prediction about how I think the two will match-up based on given evidence.

Sittin' on top of the world, part 3

Part three of a three-part series of incoherent rants, jumbled musings and confused bullhockey about the last three seasons. Highlighted here is the Season of Upstarts and Broken Hearts, 2008.


So, it was 2008, I guess. We had a pretty good football team coming in, I guess. Number three in the country or something. I wasn't ready to get excited about much of anything, because regardless of how the season began and where we ranked in whatever preseason poll was being thrown out based entirely on program reputation, the fate of the entire season hinged on one game. In a down conference, after two years of embarassment, Ohio State had one shot to "redeem itself". As most of you probably already know, it did not. In the wake: "sputtering rage, gibbering condemnation and resigned ennui" as That Dirty Hippie Up North so eloquently put it. The one thing I actually cheered about all night was when Marcus Freeman finally got to Mark 'Dirté' Sanchez on a 4th down sack, when the game was already over, and the Humanitarian was running up the score to impress the voters. I don't have anything against Carroll or USC or running up the score; I just simply pumped my fist and let out a little, defeated "yeah!" from the comfort of my living room couch. Looking back at this, I realize now why exactly I was cheering a great play by a team down 32 points: it still had some measure of fight left in it. Say what you will about Heacock, Bollman, the Vest and their failures on the national stage and I will probably agree with 90% of it. But don't you ever knock this group of seniors for anything outside of the occasional blown assignment or missed block. Marcus Freeman, James Laurinaitis, Alex Boone, Malcolm Jenkins, and every other senior on that roster has invested anywhere from 4 to 6 years in the program, and every single one of them deserves our admiration, thanks, and utmost respect for representing the university most of you attended and nearly all of my readers (all three of you) cheer for. Marcus Freeman had been relegated to pass coverage and blitzing on only the most obvious downs all night, and even though it was hopeless and there was nothing but embarassment and shame and resigned ennuie to be had after this game, he still fought to the end as best he could. Like a fucking warrior-poet.

Ohio State again had a shot at redeeming this season if not the program as a whole in its night home game against Penn State. In a game I still can't entirely explain, the Ohio State defense held up against an offense that looked unstoppable against everyone save a fluky game against Purdue. Heacock, despite Penn State's athletic WRs and RBs and spread offense, did not chicken out and play soft. He played man on occasion, blitzed on unconventional downs, and the defensive line actually got pressure - plenty of it -on Daryl Clark. Penn State was held to its lowest scoring output of the season, and needed two freshman mistakes by the One to get out of Columbus alive. For the third time in 2008, Ohio State was held without an offensive touchdown. The best game Jim Heacock had coached since Texas in 2005 was ignored largely because of the failures of Jim Bollman's side of the ball. But that loss, and the other offensive woes, can not easily be laid entirely at the feet of Jim Bollman. After all, he's a glorified line coach. He's Mike Debord with a Buckstache. Tressel is the balla, shot-calla of the offense. He chooses the plays. Apparently, Bollman literally suggests three or four plays and Tressel just picks one. Not only is this somewhat disturbing, it's disheartening that Bollman is receiving criticism, much like Ohio State, over something he doesn't have as much control over as people would like to believe. The rest of Ohio State's season was so nondescript I can sum every game up in basically one sentence: Pryor attempts less than 15 passes, Beanie Wells solidifies his draft stock when playing, the running game muddles along okay without him, and the offensive line consistently gets owned by the 2-star and 3-star Jimmies and Joes of Northwestern and Ohio. Terrelle Pryor has been nothing but impressive. He has made his freshman mistakes - taking large, drive-killing sacks chief among them - but they have not come in the form of constant turnovers, or really anything that would make you even begin to think he might not be the long-term answer at QB. Other youngsters impressed, Dan Herron and Michael Brewster chief among them, and Jermale "the Jackhammer" Hines looked impressive filling in for Kurt Coleman when he could. It was by no means a youth movement, but it was encouraging to see the next iteration of Ohio State football taking shape in these younger players.

The season was a disappointment. I don't think anyone can argue around that. This was the most talented team Jim Tressel has coached. Outside of a tough road date at USC, it was reasonable to expect an undefeated season. We had a sixth year (!) senior at quarterback, three seniors on the offensive line, arguably the best cover corner in the country, and a top-5 linebacker corps. Typically, the expectations of the Ohio State fanbase are a bit much, to put it lightly. There are many in our fanbase who think it is our birthright to go undefeated every year and that anything less is simply unacceptable. Personally, I am under no illusions that Ohio State fans are "owed" anything, or that even while donating millions of dollars to the AD that they "deserve" something. There is a difference between expectations and demands. I expected an undefeated season, but I'm not opening up Lane Avenue Torch and Pitfork over a two-loss season.

Nonetheless - and this is something I think all CFB fans can agree on - Ohio State is developing a character, and this year did nothing but reinforce it. Come the big games against the supposed big boys, Ohio State crumples. It fails. It dies trying. Whatever happens, it defies simple explanation. Some attempt to take the easy route and blame Ohio State's "lack of athleticism" (Mark May, Colin Cowherd, Todd McShay) even while their colleagues continually place Ohio State players at or near the top of their NFL draft boards at basically every position. Others point to Ohio State's soft conference schedule, something over which the Buckeyes have no control. In 2007, people pointed to the lackluster OOC schedule, featuring two macrifices, a D-1AA team and a Washington game scheduled years ago, shortly after Washington won a Rose Bowl. Again, this isn't something Ohio State can easily control. Most of the Ohio State fanbase faults the two coordinators: Jim Bollman and Jim Heacock. These two are easy targets, given their staid, consistent-yet-underwhelming schemes and the general perception that Tressel is still one of the top-five coaches in America.

As usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle of that clusterfuck. I buy arguments regarding Ohio State's conference being down because the counter-argument literally doesn't exist, I buy arguments about the two coordinators, and I can see why people think Ohio State lacks athletes, even though to do so, I must forget most of what I know about football, defensive and offensive schemes, gap assignments, reads, so on and so forth. The problem is not, and will probably never be a lack of athletes. There is no unifying cause of Ohio State's problems in the "big game", but I do think these problems will begin to be addressed by doing the following.

1. Give Heacock and Bollman a nice, long sabbatical/vacay in Naples, and bar them from entering the state of Ohio for any reason other than to visit family ever again.

2. Tressel must cede playcalling to Bollman's replacement. He will be compensated with a lifetime supply of Bonbons and a private Beach Boys (what's left of them) concert.

3. Hire Mike Barwis or one of the wolves who raised him as S+C coach. Steve Rehring, in both attitude and physical shape, is the embodiment of everything wrong with the Ohio State offensive line. In the offseason, he claimed he should be given time off from practice because he's been their for four years and knows what's going on. In 2007, he showed up to camp at a nice, lean 350 fucking pounds and lost his starting job as a result (which he would win back after dropping supposedly 30, maybe 10-15 lbs). The entire offensive line is resting on laurels it doesn't even have.

Sigh. I should probably wrap this up, shouldn't I?

The last three years have been interesting, to say the least, if you're an Ohio State fan. It all started with a monumental win at 2nd-ranked Texas in 2006, and three years later, it's come full circle to a rubber match with the Longhorns in the Fiesta Bowl. Many, including myself to some extent, won't give the Buckeyes a chance. 90% of the idiots who don't give Ohio State a chance will claim that Ohio State "can't win the Big Game", while simultaneously calling this a "rubber match" after Ohio State 24-7 triumph in 1 vs. 2 in Austin (seems like a somewhat big game) and Texas' 25-22 escape from Columbus in a game in which both teams were also ranked in the top ten. This era of Ohio State football isn't set in stone yet, despite all the negativity surrounding the program and its players. The coaching staff must put together one of the best gameplans they have in their time here, to send these seniors, ones that they have failed four consecutive times in the biggest games of their lives, off on a high note. If anyone is owed anything, it's these guys:

Buckeye (Bowl) Breakdown

Okay, since I was dumb enough to start this blog after Ohio State's football season has ended, I figured I should first discuss a topic most relevant to the team: the bowl picture. Things cleared up all nice and tidy-like with Oregon's successful Rape of the Oregon State Beavers (hurr hurr durr Beavers) and Pillage of greater Corvallis (is Corvallis big enough to justify a "greater"?). The 65-38 blowout knocked the Beavers out of their potential Rose Bowl grudge match against Penn SHTAAAAAAAATE, and vaulted both Ohio State and Boise State into the at-large picture.

Ohio State's most likely destination, should they land in the BCS, will be either the Fiesta Bowl or the Sugar Bowl. Since the BCS rotates the order of bowl picks year-by-year, each year a different BCS bowl picks first. This year's it the Fiesta. Assuming Oklahoma wins the Big 12 championship game, it'll land in the MNC to play the winner of the SEC championship game. Thusly, all the questions of whether or not anemic offenses in the SEC are the result of superb, NFL talent-laden defenses and whether or not the outright-redonkulous offenses of the Big 12 are the result of lackluster defenses will be answered forever and ever amen and annoying fans on both sides will shut the fuck up and stop bothering people who aren't even fans of teams in their conference some of whom don't know the first damn thing about football and most of whom couldn't give less of a shit and we'll never again have to have these stupid distance pissing contests that would make Scout and Rivals message board pedophiles douchebags proud. Right.

Anyway, the Fiesta picks first, remember? Chances are good that the Fiesta Bowl officials are going to remember how Ohio State fans made Tempe a Blood Orgy The University of Ohio State at Tempe in 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2006, and will snatch us right up to be led to the slaughter at the hands of Texas or Texas Tech (fuck you and your archaic championship system, Big 12). Bring your daught-ah, bring your daught-ah, and all that:

Failing that, the Sugar bowl will take Ohio State, pairing them off against the SEC runner-up. The thinking here will likely be "how can we improve the image of a conference whose probable champion lost at home to Count Giggity and LOL Miss"? The answer: pair them up with an Ohio State team that still sees something useful in the services of the Jokester Jims. Who, you ask? Jim Bollman and his nefarious Bucktache and Jim Heacock and his cute daughter undying, desperate, unbridled passion for deploying the soft zone against any team with any talent not named Penn SHTAAAAAAAAAATE. This Deadly Alliance was largely the undoing of Ohio State in the last two title games and oh yeah, That One Game Out West of which we do not speak (except to bitch and moan). I'm willing to wager that, in order to disrupt a once-unthinkable crisis of confidence in backwater SEC country, the Sugar Bowl will take an Ohio State team that probably isn't deserving of a BCS berth.

If the world ends and Boise State and Utah are both selected over the Buckeyes, hope will renew, as we would fall to either the Orange or Capital One Bowls, both winnable. The OB would pit the Buckeyes against the winner of the ACC championship; either Boston College or Va Tech. This is not likely, as Cincinnati, Big East champ is much more likely to fall into this spot because there isn't anywhere else they would fit in the BCS easily. The Capital One bowl might not sound sexy now that the Buckeyes look to be BCS bound, but, in this intrepid blogger's opinion, is the most likely to yield a win, because Georgia looked erm, beatable, against Georgia Tech this last week.

The Georgia Tech that beat Wofford.

By three points.

Wofford.

Three points.

TL;DR: We're headed to Tempe, Nawlins, possibly even Orlando for New Years. Wherever you go, bring the lube.